Shop at OK where everyone is a…

Bullish Thoughts: If you screw, be honorable and leave the organization!

Barclays Chairman Marcus Agius  is gone, CEO Bob Diamond is gone and newly appointed chief operating officer Jerry del Missier is set to follow his chief executive Bob Diamond. Del Missier has for years been a key lieutenant of Diamond, helping him build up the Barclays Capital investment bank

Not only is Diamond going home, he is going to “face tough questions from British lawmakers”  on Wednesday, the day after he quit as Barclays chief executive and a bank rate-rigging scandal claimed a third top-level scalp.

They rigged LIBOR rates, yes, that LIBOR that you read about in introductory Corporate Finance textbooks in first year university life…the famous London Interbank Offered Rate.

But they are going not before they cost shareholders $456m cash!

Just how many CEs own up locally when things go haywire? Some even after being pushed out even go about beating up others and demanding the ownership of their institutions. Never mind the screwed fellow shareholders and depositors!

And no one even questions them for the abuse of depositor funds and regulatory cash!

Stone Age is where we are living!

Shop at OK where everyone is a…

Bullish Thoughts is both a shareholder and customer of the OK Zimbabwe business. As a shareholders he cares about high dividend yields (certainly ones that are above the current measily <5%), healthy operating margins, tax efficiencies and extremely low shrinkage as well as high sales per store.

As a customer he cares more about variety of merchandise, reasonable mix of hard and soft lines, good store location (convenience), ambience and of course ridiculously low prices…yes, Bullish Thoughts say it again, “ridiculously low prices”.

So the question now is: “Is Bullish Thoughts happy either as a shareholder or as a customer?”

Definitely not!

Firstly, as a shareholder, these fires that now seem to be in the habit of burning the organisation’s outlets and warehouses is a cause for concern.

Do you remember the fire in Rusape a few years back, then Masvingo? Then Kwekwe? Then Harare? Then…?

Sounds more like a manufacturing entity being run by the Indians where the moment is becomes certain that inefficiencies have built up within the system due to obsolete equipment, you remove all the pictures of your great grandfather who founded the shop in the 1930s and any memorabilia. You then set up the entire place alight and insurance will take care of the rest and you are back in business.

Bullish Thoughts is just saying, eeehh, these fires eeehh will screw the shareholders one day! A financial fire that is!

How about as a customer? Bullish Thoughts feels hard done too! The ZAR has been markedly weakening as the Eurozone crisis (particularly the PIGS region) threatened to take the emerging markets down with it. Oil price is back under $100/b. Service stations have taken down the price of petrol from $1.51/l to an average of $1.39/l.

While everything has been down, down, down, OK Zimbabwe’s prices have been “up, up & more up”! More like “Morgan is More!”

Juices  (Cape) coming out of South Africa which used to cost $1.90-$1.95 per litre are now $2.45/l. Mazowe is up! Red Bull is almost $3 @$2.99. Eggs are up! It’s as if the Irvines & Crest chickens are laying golden eggs!

Sugar is up as well beyond $2.20/2kg. Even the wise waters seem to have increased in price.

As a customer, this is daylight misappropriation the country’s funds. No wonder why every sane person thinks that inflation numbers are massaged because if products that account for >35% of the CPI basket rise >25%, where is the dilution then coming from!

Bullish Thoughts can only say; “Shop at OK where everyone is a …”! Well, you can do the rest and fill it out depending whether you are a shareholder, debtor, creditor or customer!

At least, there is a choice for where to shop but very much limited in terms of where to invest (both private and public entities).

The share price established a resistance around 11.5c on the back of “significant demand” by the Botswana listed broking firm. Bullish Thoughts thinks the counter is worth an investor’s money only when the price is below 10c.

But you gotta be patient because the stock has suddenly become illiquid on the buy side!

Investors tired of the Zim story?

RenCap materially exited the ZSE disposing huge quantum of shares accumulated in 2009/ 2010.

The fund manager had been heavily invested in the Top 10 stocks by market cap. They did of course buy some of these shares cheaply! Delta @40c, Econet around 90c, etc so either way they also made their money despite the turmoil that has been the stock market for the past two years!

Foreigners are exiting the local market.

The promised elections have not come to pass, the indigenization drive has stooped so low to even private schools!

Average agricultural season, high cost and unreliable electricity amongst many woes bedevil the country.

The investors have been around for 3 years which can be classified as a medium term hrizon and still no ching ching.

Perhaps there is now a reallocation of the dollars to other emerging markets which are less risky and offer better returns anywhere!

Meet Sekalala, the Makerere University student Billionaire

Bullish Thoughts was inspired by the Ugandan African!

The Makerere University student epitomises how we African can ride the technology wave and develop applications that can generate koads of ching ching for the development of our nations.

Below is the story of Sekalala…

At just 22 years, Abdu Sekalala’s appearance is that of an ordinary student, but looks can be deceptive. The young man, is no ordinary student, while his colleagues await to celebrate sitting their last exam, he is already thinking about his next big challenge, how to improve his first innovation, a computer application. While others worry about where to find a job and earn their first salary, Sekalala is keenly watching the number of downloads of his application in one column while he calculates the financial return the hits make in the other.

Sekalala is a student of at Makerere University’s School of Computing and Informatics Technology (CIT) who has so far developed at least nine internationally recognized mobile phone applications that are not only building his career as an innovator but minting millions for him.

Sekalala got his break when Nokia, an international mobile phone company organized a special training session to help software developers hone their skills. The training in April and May last year presented a major break for the young man, whose application has crossed quarter a million hits so far.

While Sekalala’s success has excited his colleagues and trainers at Makerere, the challenge is where he will manage to control the excitement and keep focused. Sekalala says this is exactly what he is gunning for.

Software development has lately become an a global hit to make dollar millionaires and billionaires with the likes of Mark Zuckerberg founder of the social networking site Facebook, which he founded with colleagues while a student at Havard in 2004. Mr Zuckerberg is only 27 and is worth US$17bn (one and a half times bigger than the entire Ugandan budget for last year).

Finding success

Sekalala’s most successful application is the Wordbook which has already gone commercial and is making for him a Euro per down load or Shs3,200. Wordbook is a dictionary application with word of the day capability fully packed with definitions, examples and a selection of related words.

Speaking to Jobs and Career, Sekalala said his current success was guided by a clear focus and paying attention and making the best of the training opportunity when it presented itself.

“I paid attention throughout the sessions because I didn’t want to miss any information that I would [later] need. When we were asked to develop our own, I put my best and luckily my applications have been adopted by Nokia,” Ssekalala told Jobs and Career.

The applications are available on the Nokia Ovi Store with one of them, the Uganda Theme is a free download which has attracted over 300, 000 downloads making it the third most downloaded application.

The Nokia Ovi Store, is the firm’s application store. The greatest number of the downloads was registered in the Asian countries of India and Thailand.

Advice to young people

There is nothing impossible once you are determined to achieve your goals. He encourages young people to utilize all chances available while still in school.

The College’s training was aimed at improving the student’s mobile application development techniques to enable the public use Ugandan products world over and improve the visibility of the local software developers in the country.

His other applications

101 Romantic SMS, WhirlSports, nLightFlashlight and Tutu translate are free but have adverts provided by an Indian-based firm Vserv. Ssekalala is paid for the different brands that advertise through his applications.

He has already achieved his one million target downloads for his mobile applications and is set to earn $1million (about Shs2.5billion) before he turns 23.

“I make at least $100 (Shs250,000) a day from one application. I don’t have to look for a job after I finish school. In fact I make money while am seated in class learning and make more money than my lecturers,” Ssekalala boasted.

Michael Niyitegeka, a computer and information technology lecturer at the university said it is one of the university’s strategy to partner with government and the private sector to familiarize the students with employers so that they get to know what is needed before they are there.

Ssekalala already owns two companies; Gogetta which employs eight people and Foo Technology with seven employees. The companies focus on mobile and website development.

“Ever since I was a kid, I always wanted to do something with computers and my biggest motivation has always been a desire to innovate and leave a mark that says I was once here,” he said

Bullish Thoughts  has been inspired!

He hopes you have been too. If you didn’t know, Uganda is ruled by the famous (for whatever reason) Yoweri Museveni and is part of the East African Community and is now officially an oil producing nation.

Bulls n Bears Invest Wisely!

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Hail Masvinu: Oh King Of Ugliness

Bullish Thoughts had taken a break but he is back. He is quite intrigued by the developments that have been taking place in the local capital markets.

Matonjeni up in the skies

Bullish Thoughts was in Victoria Falls for the annual ZAPF Congress. It was quite an interesting journey. Firstly, Matonjeni was up in the sky as opposed to last year when Zambezi Airlines was the transporter.

However, the site of Matonjeni's cockpit screens was sickening to the core. Summarily put, the cockpit screen looked like that of a "dhobha dhobha", you know those run down lorries that ferry pit sand, river sand, bricks, etc where the only roadworth part is the windscreen!

The worst was still to come on Friday flight to the “smoke that thunders”!

Air Zimbabwe decided to overbook the trip from Harare. The result was the kind of stuff you see on Nickelodeon!

Passengers had to seat on each other lap so that everybody could be accommodated.

Imagine “kugara paKadoma” (squatting) in an aeroplane!

IATA should just cancel the safety certificate because having five passengers in a space designed to accommodate 3 passengers is unheard of!

ZRP and the abuse of the domestic tourist

After leaving the Victoria Falls International Airport, the shuttle bus arrived at the police roadblock just before the bridge outside the Victoria Falls town.

The convoy of 5 or so buses taking delegates from the airport to town was stopped “because the drivers were not displaying their driving licences on the windscreen”. Quite weird ain't it.

The buses waited for over an hour whilst the police were arguing with drivers. Bullish Thoughts is reliably informed that if the buses were carrying foreign tourists, it would not have been stopped for such a long time, almost equivalent to the time Matonjeni took from Harare to Victoria. Eik!

Someone needs to educate the police on professional contact and adapting to the situation on the ground because domestic tourists are always a huge chunk of arrivals to all destinations.

The Curse of Century Towers

Bullish Thoughts thinks Century Towers is probably cursed. No offense meant but that's the building where 15 employees died when the elevator crashed. That's the same building which housed Century Bank. Ever since, any institution that comes into contact with Century Bank routes has gone under.

Bullish Thoughts will not belabor  the Interfin debate suffice to say he closed his account way back in February after having been given $500 on the corporate account. He decided to bank with banks from thereon.

Unfortunately the struggle for survival is not confined to Interfin Bank alone. Other parts of the "kaconglomerate" are also disintegrating. ZSE eventually chopped Gulliver off the bourse for failure to release the results but not before employees had already started picketing for their salaries.

We can only say "chimwe chikomba tasa"

One other obvious thing coming out is that ultimately there is no such as the corporate veil because money is involved, it gets very personal!

Government the cotton buyer

Bullish Thoughts is beginning to think that government mandarins now need psychiatric attention. How one can think that the broke government can suddenly have the money to buy cotton off farmers when it still hasn't paid for cereal deliveries done to GMB in the past two years boggles the mind.

Cotton price as at 21 June was US$0.65 on the international market. The farmers are demanding a minimum price of US$0.80 for the lowest grade of cotton while cotton merchants want to pay US$0.30, a development that had resulted in delays in opening the marketing season which usually starts in April.

Elsewhere in the world, governments pay farmers a subsidy being the difference between the purchase price offered by merchants and what the farmers wanted. Merchants will get the international price.

Forgive the cotton farmers! They don't give a hoot about world markets. Unfortunately because the agritex officers are just talk how to inform farmers about killings weeds, rotating crops but no financial training they never advised farmers to manage their costs of producing the crop.

.

Hail Masvinu; King of Ugliness

Pretty ugly, ain't it? It’s quite interesting to note that the Mr Ugly contest has been going on for a number of of years but they had never encountered a man so ugly that traffic lights would immediately change to red straight from green!

The man badly however needs to make money from his new found firm and his dzetse like face.

Bullish Thoughts is kindly appealing to Corporate Finance/ Investment Advisors to structure a portfolio indexed to ugly subject to the constraint that Masvinu will not use facial creams or otherwise.

Bullish Thoughts thinks that Masvinu could approach the manufacturers of Chikwapuro, Chirindamatura or Raid Insect killers and he could just wink at the cockroaches and they will drop dead straight away. The Zora Butter route might way as strikers may fail to score after seeing the King i the terracces.

Otherwise, Hail Masvinu; Oh King of Ugliness! 

Bullish Thoughts: Your pizza in 1 hr or go suck it up!

Cash shortages back?

Bullish Thoughts went to his business bank Friday afternoon to get cash for the "junta" at home's weekend invoice.

The banking hall is also quite a distance from the workplace, some 10km or so.

Having arrived and dully checking the balance and satisfying self the account was fully funded, a withdrawal slip was duly completed with a grin...you know the January grin where you behave as if you have just picked the money in your account from the bin even if it's yours!

Handing the teller the withdrawal slip at this indigenous bank so much disliked by Gilbert Muponda, Bullish Thoughts was told that he could only withdraw $500.00. Yes, $500.00!

The budget had $200 fees balance, $50 diapers, $200 loan repayment, $50 ballet fees, new hairstyle and new shoes for the junta, etc etc.

All the whining and complaining yielded no more of the money in the bank.

Getting back to the office, Bullish Thoughts did discover on his Facebook posts that he was not the only aggrieved depositor. A number of posts were just like $500.00...argrhhhhhh!

Bullish Thoughts was therefore left unable to "turn it up" with Miller this prejudicing Delta Beverages bottom line as no $$$$$$ were left for the wise waters budget.

What makes Bullish Thoughts angry is that Miller is on promotion costing only a $1 and that Gideon Gono had earlier been quoted in the media saying the banking sector is safe.

Worse still be lady teller was rude when asked why the there was a limit placed on withdrawals to a measly $500.00.

She was like "Ndozvatiri kuita izvozvo!" (That's what we are doing)

Fachii!!!!

Cash rationing is the last thing Bullish Thoughts want to experience and he is going to redirect his business to "banks".

These days, a customer can only vote with his feet and business/money.

No wonder why  more than a $bn is floating underground!

Get your pizza in 1 hr or go suck it up!

Bullish Thoughts gotta say, the current level of customer service in this country is probably something out of Jurassic Park...more like  Customer service...the age of dinosaurs!

Bullish Thoughts senior and the little Miss Bullish Thoughts decided to treat ourselves to a Pizza in the evening of Saturday after an extremely busy day...

"Daddy, let's go home!" had been said a dozen times during the day where daddy was dragging her along to the office.

Finally, around 7pm, a pizza was surely in order to try and regain the favour from the little 'junta'.

After passing through the Belgravia food court and seeing a swarm of people, we decided on Sam Nujoma Street Extension food court. It seemed like a wise decision... It usually is.

The lady who accepted the order said, they had so many orders and we we going to wait between 20-25 minutes. Well,it seemed OK under the circumstances.

10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 40, 45 minutes and the pizza was nowhere in sight and no one even volunteered an explanation for the inordinate delay.

50 minutes later it was discovered that Bullish Thoughts' order had been "mysteriously" skipped by the back office printer.

Before this communication, the pizza had been hurriedly put on the rack or whatever it is that heats up and cooks/ fries it.

Naturally, Bullish Thoughts asked for money back because waiting for a pizza for 60 minutes was unreasonable anywhere in the world...never mind even trying to get it for free!

"I will give you your refund if you no longer want to wait", came the reply.

As if we had not waited long enough!

Worse still no apology.

Perhaps it's high time I switched to wood fired Pizza.

Marketers out there (some a even chartered"), the customer service mantra has gone to the hyenas!

Upcoming corporate empires...

It was quite interesting to note that SAKUNDA Energy is now practically running Zimbabwe's fuel value chain...with >40% of the market share.

Bullish Thoughts says that even though fuel is a low margin business, it's probably high time corporate financiers did some work and convinced this business to list on the ZSE instead of some marginal entities whose net worth is less than the wardrobe of their sponsors.

Croco Motors is another upcoming corporate which seems to have entrenched itself materially in the vehicle selling and servicing. The high margin Premier Auto brand also seems to be doing quite well if the volume of the Land & Range rovers plus the iconic Jaguars one is seeing in Harare are anything to go by.

CFI...a smart business choice?

Bullish Thoughts found it quite interesting that CFI seems to be now working on all the facets of the business.

Remember the proposed sale of Dore & Pitt? Interestingly, management had thought a firm with a corporate structure like CFI could drill boreholes profitably...just how many boreholes can be drilled on this market? Anyway, there has been no feedback regarding the progress registered in this fire sell.

Victoria Foods, well, rumor has it that at one point the management were looking at an asking price of $10m...yes, $10m for that asset. Only God knows how obsolete that plant now is!

What doesn't or isn't making sense to Bullish Thoughts is why the company needs strategic partners for Crest Poultry.

Are the partners going to lay eggs or they are Brazil bred chickens?

We wait and we shall find out. It's a mystery how one can fail to manage a chicken business!

ZEBRAS painted black

All Bullish Thoughts can say is that the Zebras of Botswana were painted black by Guinea. Never before has a soccer team displayed such a dull game of soccer.

Chipolopolo: The pride of Southern Africa

Every southerner is happy Chipolopolo has made us proud by progressing to the quarter finals.

Bullish Thoughts gotta confess though.

He spent the last 15 minutes of that second half clutching his scrotum & its contents so that the Lions of Teranga could not roar and score!

Yes, that ritual we used to do back in primary school in the early 90s when a penalty kick was being taken!

And boy, we're the Lions of Teranga not reduced to useless "Mofasas"?

Zambia now probably is going to play the former Ivory Coast.

Bullish Thoughts sees this as a good thing for Zambia.

"THE ONLY WAY TO GET SMARTER IS TO PLAY A SMARTER OPPONENT"- FUNDAMENTALS OF CHESS

Invest Wisely!

**The author of this report does not hold shares in any of the companies discussed/ mentioned in this report.

Bulls n Bears

Email: bulls@bulls.co.zw

Website: www.bulls.co.zw

Blogspot: http://bullsnbearszimbabwe.blogspot.com/

Bullish Thoughts: Xmas cheer is back

Bullish Thoughts

It’s already two weeks into the New Year 2012 and it has somewhat been a slow start on the equities but then, perhaps January disease also caught onto the market.

The stock market is still trading light so let’s share some light hearted developments.

bulls@bulls.co.zw

Pizza Sliced in the stomach

Bullish Thoughts started the food year on a sour note. Not that he has anything against the Chicken Slice/ Pizza Slice guys. For the record, Bullish Thoughts liked the way they upstaged Innscor fast foods particularly with that Mvuma outlet.

Bullish Thoughts is not a conventional food critic but he just likes his food to taste and look well.

So after having tried the Chicken Slice in 2011 and finding it comparing reasonably well with Chicken Inn, he decided to have a peri peri Pizza Slice…the favourite from Pizza Inn.

That was the worst pizza Bullish Thoughts has ever eaten. It was like eating rubber with curry powder. The worse thing was that the grit from the curry was so pronounced. Worse still, the additional order of hot wings was with mildly done French fries and “hot” wings that were hot in temperature not flavor with chilli sauce being “poured” so that your Bullish Thoughts could dip the wings in there and then eat them. Argrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrh!

Gotta say, the Slice guys need to up the game seriously particularly with the horrible parking space at the Samora Machel outlet!

Zimbabwe’s economy is ticking

Xmas cheer is back! Bullish Thoughts was in rural Chivhu, Madamombe for the celebrations of the birth of Jesus Christ. This was after having gone on holiday a week earlier with the “junta” and kids and meeting some visiting tourists from Liverpool & Manchester at what Bullish Thoughts thought was a simple Chengeta.

After having travelled a bit around the tourism facilities early December 2011and seeing quite interesting occupancies as well, Bullish Thoughts sees self becoming a regular domestic tourist and learning to appreciate the natural Zimbabwe than have some “chaja julo” from thousands of kilometres away see the Kariba Dam wall before he does.

The Christmas of the old days

It always rained on Christmas day when Bullish Thoughts was growing up. Being a rural boy herding cattle and goats and as the youngest also, it meant no wearing of new clothes on Christmas as they would be messed up by the rain.

Bullish Thoughts remembers that his cousin brother who was a cook in the army would bring scones, baked beans and “dog” biscuits (boy, they tasted great) which would be shared during the lunch break by the gardens along Mutorahuku River and be munched with children zest.

Of course lunch was always with sour milk or wild mushrooms like “nhedzi” and or “huvhe” because the numerous visitors would have eaten all the chicken leaving no stew for you.

Bullish Thoughts thinks this is why chicken is now only eaten in the evening in rural areas!

On Boxing Day, a few teeth would be lost as the day was literally translated in meaning. The grazing grounds were never short of guys who could build our mothers’ “breasts” and boy did heads get punched when one dared to destroy anyone’s mother’s breast mound.

Later in the day, the older brothers would come and swap you so that you could go to the shops with your green $5 note with two women hammering the “duri”.

At the shops, kids would huddle around in a corner of the shop with the notorious “gunguwo” or black and white TV showing family friendly programmes. The $5 would have bought a pair of pata patas, 1 packet Lobels Vanilla Creams (way before $1 for 2 came) and a coke that would be filled to the base with sea divers from the Lobels packet.

That’s what Bullish Thoughts saw this past Christmas; kids holding their 300ml cokes, $1 for 2s in hand and watching wrestling on satellite TV.

Their fathers were sipping the deadly Kenge brew sitting outside beerhall with “Zvigeza” on the prowl oblivious of the glamour in the cities.

And it rained on Christmas!

God is always there for you

Gotta say, God is there for sure after the Australian lady survived the crocodile infested Zambezi after a bungee jump went foul.

God is great!

Bullish Thoughts hopes you will be great for Him too this year and for always!

2011 Fuel blues

Bullish Thoughts feels sorry for the fuel makorokozas. Have used all the fuel while visiting all the imaginable relatives over Christmas, Bullish Thoughts found all Chivhu service stations dry (Total, Country Petroleum, Caltex, Convex, Exor).

So did many other motorists.

The police had surprisingly done a good job to prevent anyone with a container from buying fuel in the hope of suffocating the black market.

Bullish Thoughts, without fuel for the 141km to Harare had two choices; sleep in Chivhu and pray for fuel deliveries to take place or hike 49km to Mvuma and buy fuel.

It turned out, the US$ is precious and all drivers decided to follow the $5 to and fro journey to Mvuma with their containers.

Economics of the US$ indeed! No more rent seeking.

But Bullish Thoughts was left wondering how owners of service stations did not stock up adequate fuel for the festive period. It seemed it was not only Chivhu but Victoria Falls area as well where petrol hit $15/5l.

Some entrepreneurs “Havana ropa remari” (no eye for money)!

Elections or not?

Bullish Thoughts says this is probably the year of mother of all uncertainties investment wise if elections are going to be the major variable for investment decisions.

Last year it was impossible to have the elections but this year no one knows.

Worse still, the party that had been crying for elections no longer wants them.

The obvious downside of all this is that with risk aversion on emerging markets on the back of crisis in the Eurozone, capital raising will be even more difficult.

Bullish Thoughts is quite sure there will be more casualties operationally on the bourse apart from the miners.

Still on the ZSE, one hopes the ZSE or SEC will do something about the continued listing of all those companies with market cap below $1.5m.

Invest Wisely!

**The author of this report does not hold shares in any of the companies discussed/ mentioned in this report.

Bulls n Bears

Email: bulls@bulls.co.zw

Website: www.bulls.co.zw

Blogspot: http://bullsnbearszimbabwe.blogspot.com/

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