Friday, October 15, 2010

Eco Chinyii?

Eco Chinyii?


Bullish Thoughts loves innovative companies. The Inspired Network is on the market with the revolutionary Mobile Insurance Product known as Ecolife.


The life cover is supposedly free because the participating subscriber gets to use all their juiced up airtime.


For Econet Wireless shareholders (including wishful ones like Bullish Thoughts), the money will filter through increased average revenue per user (ARPU) which was expected to come off because of the per second billing directive by POTRAZ.


Hypothetically if all subscribers register (perhaps 40,000+ have already done so by now), Econet would be guaranteed $13.5m per month in revenues from prepaid subscribers.


If you are conservative and factor in Bullish Thought’s 3 Buddie lines and other factors, you can determine the trade off metrics to see if the $35m per month revenues expected to full year can then be achieved/ maintained.


The only thing Bullish Thoughts cares about is whether the cash will keep flowing to Econet so that the aggressive dividend policy is maintained.


Further innovation like mobile banking to capture the informal market more than welcome and can make Econet an instant superstar like Safaricom’s M-Pesa in Kenya.


Losing Money on the ZSE?



Beenie Man: The Lion Lager cash injector?


Will the coming to Zimbabwe of the Jamaican Beenie Man be the cash injector for Delta's Lion Lager? Bullish Thoughts can't wrap his head on just how this will be good for Delta's beer sales. Have marketing persons at Delta or the independent consultancy concluded that Ma Rasta are a critical component of the business' clear beer sales?


Unfortunately Bullish Thought is not a fanatic of the brown bottled wise waters, so he cannot profer a learned opinion this. He only wishes it was the Miller: Rock the Boat festival. Oterwise Delta should just know us the shareholders want a dividend now!


Disconnected Information at Truworths


Bullish Thoughts always believed that Truworths is a world class apparel retailer with world class ICT systems.


However, the experiences of the past week left Bullish Thoughts wondering about the quality of MI at Truworths, yes, Management Information.


You see, Bullish Thoughts was arm twisted to settle the madam’s credit account with Truworths. Because of the countrywide liquidity challenges, Bullish Thoughts delayed settling the account.


When cashflows improved, Bullish Thoughts rushed to the nearest Topics outlet and enquired on the dues, got a printout of the balance outstanding and duly paid.


On arrival home (pretty much early that day) to brag about it, madam advised that she had paid off the account and produced the relevant receipts to that effect.


Checking with Topics shop floor staff, we were referred to “Accounts” upstairs. On arrival and not seeing even a single computer but a pile of papers Bullish Thought’s worst fears were confirmed.


The various Topics branches & departments are not online. Bullish Thoughts can only get the much needed refund after month end when “books of accounts are closed”. No wonder why you have the Hunyani cases where some divisional manager can afford to manipulate the accounts for an entire quarter. Quite primitive is all we can say. Meanwhile Bullish Thoughts can’t wait for end of October to get his $140 refund!


But just how do management keep a grip on things at Truworths with such pathetic (mis)information systems?


Everything is OK at OK Zim


Bullish Thoughts remembers “How we almost ended up with an Afrofoods Grand Challenge”.

A timely recapitalisation by Investec through a hybrid loan structure just whisked OK Zim away from the jaws of ultimate collapse.


Fast forward to now, it is the best performing counter on the ZSE with a phenomenal 67% gain YTD.

The stores refurbishment programme has started and is currently underway at OK Kwekwe & Sam Nujoma Street Extension aiming at modernization of the shops. Four other stores are on target. Five branches have been equipped with high capacity generators to stem the losses that were stemming from fridge failures.


The fresh capital injection has evidently given the business a new lease of life with stocking having significantly improved. Arresting shrinkage and introducing more high margin products and general prudent overheads management will improve profit margins.


OK Zim is the largest retail group in Zimbabwe by floor space (correct us if we are wrong). They control 49 outlets with 78,000 sqm worth of retail space.


Obviously, it will be long before they can be comparable with the Shoprites & Massmarts of Southern Africa but they are catching up on the Afrofoods and SPARs of Zimbabwe.


If only they can improve the look and feel of the shops! Otherwise, everything is OK at Ok Zimbabwe.


Golden Tetrad


Tony Fisher & Team Tetrad must be feeling vindicated by the performance of the Tetrad Gold Fund since introduction.


Some sceptics have said gold has no real value because it has no other use.


Warren Buffet has had this to say about gold: “It gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.”


The World Gold Council has counter-argued that the case for gold as a reserve asset” looks at gold in three contexts: strategic asset allocation and the maximisation of risk-adjusted returns in the investment portfolio; as a tactical overlay to hedge against current global macroeconomic risks; and as a high-quality liquid asset in periods of distress, the time when central banks most need their reserves.


The gold price movement has been phenomenal by world standards. When almost every punter thought the price had peaked, it continued hitting new life time highs almost everyday. The last time Bullish Thoughts checked, Gold Spot Price was Bid: $1380.70 Ask: $1381.50.


With fears of potential quantitative easing (QE) by the USA following poor job data in early October, gold is the safer haven with threats of a double dip recession hanging over the USA and equities not as secure than the bullion itself.


A weaker US$ also made it cheaper for holders of other currencies to purchase the bullion thereby providing significant support for the price.


Sovereign funds are stocking up especially Indian and Chinese governments trying to minimise the impact of their exposure to the USA fiat money.


So, yes, Tetrad Gold Fund has really been a worthwhile innovation or Blue Ocean if you are a student of modern day strategy scholars.


Naspers’ Big Brother: Munya a defensive stock


Bullish Thoughts has discussed with fellow “moralists” that Big Brother Africa All Stars (and the previous seasons) do nothing for the African public but destroy moral fibre. The agreement has been that Donald Trump’s Apprentice is much better in terms of value addition to both contestants and audience.


The discourse then concluded that the reason for the “immoral reality show” is about money for the show sponsors.


Just imagine that if two million subscribers send texts during the voting sessions and texts direct to TV, it’s $1m for the network operator.


In the meantime, for a measly $214,000 maximum payout, the contestant will be smoking on TV, drinking on TV, showring naked on TV and dirty dancing on Bullish Thoughts' TV.


Anyway, like R Kelly sang, Money Makes The World Go Round.


Still on Big Brother, if Zimbabwe’s Munyaradzi Chidzonga were a listed stock, it would be a defensive counter after having survived eviction 9 times to see himself to the final.


America's Youngest Billionaires


Bullish Thoughts as an upcoming entrepreneur (alleged at least), envy the Google founders because they created a money making machine from a seemingly simple concept.


The Facebook youngsters have a phenomenal product, but Bullish Thoughts still can’t wrap the head around how they are meant to make money in the absence of adverts.


What Bullish Thoughts can guarantee you however is that when Billions (of US$ of course) start flowing, we won’t fund legalisation of marijuana and funding condoms for Zimbabwe prisoners!


We will be ethical investors; Green Investors if you like.


Anyway, here is a look at some of America’s Youngest Billionaires


Dustin Moskovitz


Net Worth: $1.4 billion
Source: Facebook
Age: 26

America's youngest billionaire is eight days younger than his former Harvard roommate Mark Zuckerberg. Facebook's first chief technology officer, he left in 2008 to start Asana, a software company that allows individuals and small companies to better collaborate. For now, his entire fortune comes from his 6 percent stake in Facebook.


Mark Zuckerberg


Net Worth: $6.9 billion
Source: Facebook
Age: 26

The Harvard dropout and Facebook CEO was the biggest percentage gainer on this year's Forbes 400 list and the unwitting star of box-office hit "The Social Network." Last month he agreed to donate $100 million to Newark's troubled schools.


Scott Duncan


Net Worth: $3.1 billion
Source: pipelines
Age: 27

The son of the late Dan Duncan assumed control of part of his family's $12.4 billion pipeline empire after his father's death last March. Their energy company, Enterprise Products, owns more than 49,000 miles of pipelines.


Eduardo Saverin


Net Worth-$1.15 billion;

Source-Facebook;

Age-28

Brazilian-born Saverin co-founded Facebook with Harvard classmate Mark Zuckerberg and for a brief time had a one-third stake. When Zuckerberg quit school to relocate to California, Saverin stayed behind to graduate. A year later Facebook sued him; he countersued. The parties settled with Saverin apparently getting a 5 percent stake and co-founder bio on Facebook's site.


John Arnold


Net Worth: $3.3 billion
Source: hedge funds
Age: 36

The former Enron oil trader founded hedge fund Centaurus after the energy outfit famously collapsed. His fund now has $5 billion under management, and he and his wife Laura recently pledged half of their wealth to the Gates-Buffet challenge.


Sergey Brin


Net Worth-$15 billion;

Source-Google;

Age: 37

Emigrated from Russia at age 6; his mother was a research scientist at NASA. He met Larry Page in computer science Ph.D. program at Stanford and dropped out in 1998 to start Google. Brin now focuses on raising margins with Instant Search and building new businesses in communications, and he invests in space travel initiatives and Parkinson's research on the side.


Larry Page


Net Worth- $15 billion; Source-Google; Age-37

The Google co-founder dropped out of his Stanford Ph.D. program in 1998 to start the search engine. Nowadays his personal passions include buying up chunks of residential Palo Alto for a network of houses that use new types of fuel cells, geothermal energy and rainwater capture. He also rides a Zero X electric dirt bike and an electric sports car from Tesla Motors, in which he and Sergey Brin are investors. Page is a board member of the X Prize Foundation, a nonprofit looking for breakthroughs in genomics, energy and space exploration.


Daniel Ziff


Net Worth-$4 billion;

Source-inheritance, hedge funds;

Age-38

The youngest son of the late William Ziff Jr., who built the Ziff-Davis publishing empire (PC Magazine, Car & Driver, Boating) and later sold out. Daniel and his brothers Dirk and Robert inherited their father's fortune, which they have since reinvested in Ziff Brothers Investments. He recently got married.


Lorenzo Fertitta


Net Worth-$1 billion;

Source-casinos;

Age-41

Fertitta returns to billionaire status thanks to growing martial arts league Ultimate Fighting Championship, which he owns with his older brother Frank. Abu Dhabi investment is helping UFC go international. A scuba diver, he swims with sharks -- including tigers and great whites -- for fun.


Jerry Yang


Net Worth-$1.15 billion;

Source-Yahoo!;

Age-41

Born in Taiwan, Yang moved to the U.S. at age 10. He created his Web directory in 1994 with partner David Filo when both were Stanford grad students. Yahoo! co-founder made his debut among America's 400 richest at age 29. Still with Yahoo!, but no longer its head honcho. He sits on other boards and makes a number of charitable donations.


Of atheists and British political leaders


Ed Miliband, the new British labour leader, has stated in no uncertain terms that he doesn’t believe in God. He did not say whether he believes in Charles Darwin’s Evolution Theory either.

His brother David Miliband (former Foreign Secretary) has also confessed his atheism.

Ed Miliband’s declaration means two of the three leaders of major British political parties are self-proclaimed atheists.


Nick Clegg, the Deputy Prime Minister, also confirmed he does not believe shortly after being named Liberal Democrat leader.


Another “notable” Briton, theoretical physicist and cosmologist, Stephen Hawking recently pronounced that he believes God is not necessary in our lives. No wonder he doesn’t talk with his mouth. Otherwise hot coals will have been needed like in Prophet Isaiah's case.


Bullish Thoughts being a Christian, is just concerned by these developments in the UK.


Maybe that’s why behaviours which are worse than those of pigs and dogs are celebrated.


In God Bullish Thoughts Trusts!


Invest Wisely.

Sunday, July 18, 2010

Emphasize discipline over daring


Emphasize discipline over daring


This has to be the longest blog Bullish Thoughts has done in some weeks. One key lesson of this particular blog is DISCIPLINE. Bullish Thoughts is trying to apply it to self by making sure that the column is consistently run every fortnight at least.


Paul My Foot!

Word has it Paul the Octopus did predict Yakubu Aigbeni’s historic 2010 World Cup miss. Only that he went on to have predicted Yakubu Aigbeni would be given a RED CARD for the miss. No doubt many Nigerians wish the red card had been handed to Yakubu. That’s new football. French referees no longer blow the whistle for handballs after Thierry’s Ireland game misdemeanor. So Fabiano decided to do rugby against Didier Drogba’s Team.


Messi can’t speak any English?

Well, maybe Cesc Fabregas won't be joining Barcelona after all. Too bad for him! Or good for him because he was gonna warm the bench like he did for Spain.


Without him Barcelona will still be the best club in the world (or La Liga World at least) and Arsenal, well, they'll remain where they belong: 3rd place in the English Premier League.


Barcelona was reportedly willing to give Lionel Messi to Arsenal but a language barrier stopped it? That has to be the stupidest thing I've read in a while.


Enough about soccer save to say; “Does anyone know anything about the Major Soccer League or New York Red Bulls?”



To outsmart the market, emphasize discipline over daring

Back to equities which perhaps Bullish Thoughts knows better. In the beloved field of equities literature Bullish Thoughts discovered that there are two things that are the downfall of most investors: a lack of discipline, and overconfidence.


Being disciplined is fully 50% of the job of trading or investing. No matter how good your system is, without the discipline needed to follow it you don't have much of a chance for meeting your goals. It doesn’t matter how great a planner or organiser you are, without discipline your plans will most likely fail to bear fruit. Discipline involves self-control.


Unfortunately a vast array of psychological research suggests that our ability to use self-control to force our cognitive process to override our emotions is limited.


Another thing … we are hardwired to be confident because if we weren't we might never be able to make a decision.


However, we are often too confident in our own abilities. We suffer a great deal from overconfidence. For example, we believe that our own selected lottery ticket has a better chance of winning than someone else’s selected ticket even though all of us know that the odds are the same for everyone. But when asked to give your ticket up for someone else’s, the response is usually — “No way!”


This fact has been tested over and over with the same conclusion: that we believe our own cognitive skills or our own luck is better than other people’s. In the investment world, the path to ruin is full of disasters caused by this sort of overconfidence.


So, when you see a stock with huge upside it may be a good idea to remind yourself to take care of the downside first, before thinking about the upside potential. Just because a stock looks really undervalued as shown by a few numbers or by who else is buying shares, doesn’t mean it’s going to turn out well.


The ZSE board is littered with such stocks some of which have come off by more than 90% on a YTD basis. Just out of interest, on which table did your discipline or lack of it thereof land you?



Top Risers YTD

Top Fallers YTD

Counter

Price (Usc)

∆%

Counter

Price (USc)

∆%

Chemco

80

+77.78

Zeco

0.1

-90.00

Zpi

0.55

+37.50

Redstar

0.05

-83.33

Zimplow

3.20

+28.00

African Sun

2.80

-76.67

M&R

21.00

+20.00

Pioneer

0.07

-76.67

Tsl

7.00

+14.75

Gulliver

0.18

-70.00


Bullish Thoughts is going to let you be the jury.


The good news is that we continue to make brain cells pretty much throughout our lives. Our brains aren’t fixed forever, we can rearrange the neurons. We aren’t doomed — we can learn. Unfortunately, it isn’t easy!


The role that emotions — such as hope and fear — play in trading

The average man or woman buys commodities because they hope they will go up, or somebody advises them they will go up. This is the most dangerous thing to do. Never trade on hope. Hope wrecks more people than anything else. Study the market and determine the trend. Face the facts, and when you trade, trade on facts, eliminate hope.



Fear causes many losses. People sell out because they fear things are going lower, but they often wait until the decline has run its course and sell near the bottom. Often when they have been out of the market for some time, they get in because they fear it is going higher.



Never make a trade on fear.

You will never succeed buying or selling when you hope the market is going up or down. Hope will ruin you because it is nothing more than wishful thinking and provides no basis for action. Fear might save you if you act quickly when you see that you are wrong.


The fear of the market is the beginning of wisdom. Only knowledge that you obtain by deep study can help you succeed. The more you study past records the surer you are to be able to detect the trend in the future.



Love to win or hate to lose?


There’s a big difference between loving to win and hating to lose, which has a lot to do with one’s approach to risk. Someone who loves to win is willing to take a lot of risks because the euphoria of winning outweighs the bad outcomes. If you hate to lose, though, any bad outcome is not acceptable. To be a great investor, I think you really have to hate to lose — Jon Jacobson.



Overcoming the Neanderthal


Your brain has not changed much from the time of the Neanderthal man who hunted wild animals for food and ran from the beasts and neighbouring tribes that threatened his survival. That “rat” brain is still within you — as powerful as it was thousands of years ago. The history of panics and crashes in the financial markets since the inception of trade reflects this ever-changing cycle of fear, greed and hope. To master the art and science of trading requires counterintuitive thinking and a good understanding of your own psychology. The journey within is the most challenging of your trading career. Only when you can recognise the emotions of fear, greed and hope that come up for you, and you are able to resist them, can you begin to trade with authenticity and purpose. It requires discipline and practice.


Don’t let anyone tell you it’s easy. It just plain isn’t. Simple? Yes. But not easy.



How judgments about company management character affect investment success


Below are some quotes that investment gurus know will influence and should influence equities investment decisions.


· Making judgments about management is important to us and something I think value managers tend to underweigh. You can analyse something statistically, but if you expect to own it for 10 years, management is going to make thousands of decisions you can’t predict and may never even know about, which collectively make earnings compound at a rate more or less than they would have otherwise. Those things can add up over time. — Boykin Curry



· The hardest thing is to find management that actually behaves in shareholders’ interest as opposed to their own interest. It’s not what they say, it’s what they do. Take the company that says they are focused on EVA (economic value added) … until they don’t hit their targets and then the board gives management their bonuses anyway, saying “it wasn’t their fault, the economy was bad, why should they get penalised for that?” So you’re looking for managements and boards that actually act in shareholders’ interest, and there aren’t many. — Bill Miller.


· We look first for intellectual honesty. It drives me crazy when you meet with management and there are real issues and they act like they aren’t there. Also important is a contrarian bent, a confidence to go against the prevailing trend. — Jeffrey Ubben


· One red flag is when management sits down with us and right off asks, “What do you think is wrong with our share price?” Any implicit or explicit focus on the share price rather than the business is a bad sign. — Edward Studzinski


· How management communicates about mistakes is very important. No one is mistake-free — as investment managers, about 40% of the stocks we buy end up underperforming the market — and I’d be concerned about any company where shareholder communication doesn’t include a candid assessment of mistakes. — Bill Nygren



· Character is best judged in the proxy statement — what do they pay themselves and how? Is their financial self-interest truly aligned with mine as a shareholder?


· I have absolutely no problem with the people running huge, complicated, global businesses making a lot of money. The big problem we have now is that you’re seeing a lot of superstar compensation for only minor- league performance. — Thomas Gayner



While they won’t always admit it, most investors hold a special place in their hearts for successful and honest corporate managers. That’s primarily driven by the significant role strong management plays in their investments’ increasing in value.


Bullish Thoughts

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