Monday, September 10, 2012

Bullish Thoughts: SPAR, a thorn in the Innscor backside?

Well, Bullish Thoughts can now say he is a SOCIALITE... Why, you may be wondering. Bullish Thoughts was a nominee at the just ended inaugural ZB Oscars Awards!

It was all glamour...you know red carpet and all. The ladies were looking drop dead gorgeous donning 29 inch stilettos and some outfits that Bullish Thoughts had only seen on Tinker Bell. It was lovely to say the least.

The event started off with a display by the capable ladies and girls from the National Ballet Centre...if only we could make their outfits the National Dress Code.

Bullish Thoughts loves ballet…and or ballroom dancing! It teaches you to be at peace with yourself, it gives vision…it makes you feel you can be anything you want!

Only if all men could handle every woman the way a ballroom dancer does…with dignity!

Anywhere, enough about ballet…That’s for Miss Little Bullish Thoughts  during holidays at Reps Theatre

Ballet…Spiritual dance it is

Bullish Thoughts was taken aback by the level of talent that local and upcoming musicians have and the development that they have undergone.

Many will probably remember Prudence  Mbofana of the BP Yangu Yakwira fame...what a long way she has come and boy, didn't she bring the house down with contemporary jazz (if there is something like that). Talented young lady she is.

We shall not talk about the affable Tuku "Oliver Mtukudzi". World class performance is what he always delvers and he did just that.

Bullish Thoughts was left wondering if he could engineer some corporate finance deal that would result in the merger of Tuku & Prudence’s bands and list it potentially on Tyson’s Indigenisation Exchange… Bullish Thoughts is quite sure Josh Hozheri of Jazz 105 would appreciate such a deal instead of penny stock Jah Prayzah that he is crying over.

Live music is where money is at currently and is worthwhile becoming musicpreneur!

While Bullish Thoughts did not get to take Oscar home, he presents to you some snapshots of the Oscar Awards for you appreciation.


Bullish Thoughts (left) with World Bank Zimbabwe Country Manager Nginya Mungai Lenneiye at the Oscar Awards




Oscar at the Oscars Awards


Customer is the King!

Oscars aside, Bullish Thoughts got taken aback by this ZB event. For a very long time Bullish Thoughts has been complaining by the quality of service that customers (who are holding the $s) have been getting from many of the service and product providers around.

While Bullish Thoughts is not a banker at ZB, he was pleasantly surprised by the treat that was given to ZB's loyal customers. At least someone out there does really care about the customers who have stuck to the bank through the various transformations.

However, Bullish Thoughts wishes the bank would be like the former self (Zimbank) that had much more brand equity.

Perhaps it's time for leadership renewal at the Group level.

30 years is a hell long time at the top especially in corporate world unless it's a family run business!


Tuku… the musician at the Oscars


 Minimum Capital up in the insurance sector

The Commissioner of Insurance, Madam Mpofu has now released the proposed new capital requirements which should in a way bring sanity to a sector where many insurance companies were in practice brokers.

IPEC is proposing the levels in the tables below:

Class of Business
Current ($)
Proposed ($)

Life assurance company
500 000
3 million
Non-life insurance company
300 000
2 million
Composite insurance company
800 000
5 million
Non Life reinsurance company
400 000
3 million
Life reinsurance company
400 000
3 million
Funeral  assurance company
400 000
2.5 million

For broking companies, the following levels will apply:


Current

Proposed

Class of Business
PS ($)
PI ($)
PS ($)
PI ($)
Insurance Broker
100 000
100 000
100 000
200 000
Reinsurance Broker
100 000
100 000
      100 000
250 000
(PS) Minimum Prescribed Securities and Professional Indemnity (PI)

All Pension Fund Administrators are required to raise capital of US$250 000. In addition, fund administrators will be required to possess professional indemnity cover of US$100 000 and to be incorporated as companies.

All institutions are required to have complied with 50% of the capital requirements by 31st December 2012. Full compliance is expected by 31st December 2013.

Bullish Thoughts however doesn’t foresee any failure to comply by the players in the sector given that most of them already had capital levels way above the required minimums.

He however felt the regulator should have done something about the rate undercutting which is the main threat to stability of the sector.

In Botswana, if laid down rules are violated by particularly insurance brokers, there is immediate action…loss of licence and a deterrent fine.

Perhaps in the fullness of time, it will come to pass.

SPAR…a cancer eating away shareholder cash for dividends

By the way, can someone tell Bullish Thoughts why Innscor just doesn’t get rid of SPAR business…it’s a cancer eating away money that could have gone towards rewarding shareholders but is instead just going down the abyss!

The SPAR blight has been around too long on the Innscor numbers starting with Zambian operations. SPAR has also since fallen behind TM & OK Zim in the retail space perking order as well and some franchises are evidently struggling as well.

Bullish Thoughts is just wondering who this SPAR baby is...with such losses by now such an operation would probably have been sold off.

It is no secret that performance-wise Zimbabwe SPAR is worse off than South African SPAR!

Don't get Bullish Thoughts wrong...he loves SPAR brand and the merchandise range and The Bridge, Athienitis & Montagu are his favourite outlets.

It's just that as a potential Innscor shareholder, ching-ching is more preferable!


Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Diamonds & Dogs: A dog called NicozDiamond


Diamond: Lifestyle (US1.50c, WTD: +36.36%, YTD: -40.00%, Mkt Cap $ 11,430,546)

Diamonds & Dogs will not comment much about the Lifestyle numbers given that they came through TN Holdings numbers and the demerger is fairly too recent.

He is however worried about the outlet strategy on those malls especially the Angwa Street& First Street ones.

Firstly, whilst the traffic is dense in that area, one would have thought outlet concentration would make sense in food and beverages not furniture.

Why is it that there is only one Mohammed Mussa in Harare and “everyone” goes to South Avenue for shopping? Because convenience is not necessarily the edge on consumer durable goods.

Diamonds & Dogs is certain that anyone who goes in the TN Bank Mall on First Street will be extremely worried about the sales per sqm given the swathes of empty space.

To make it worse, Innscor Fast Foods has been cutting down the prices and one wonders what will happen to the Grill outlet 10 metres away from Nandos, Steers, Chicken Inn, Bakers Inn, Pizza Inn, Creamy Inn. Some fights are not worth fighting in a closed ring.

The Slice guys knew that well and created their own space away from predatory Innscor fast foods and its paying off.

Diamonds & Dogs hopes TN Grill won’t be grilled by Zed Koudounaris and eaten as a takeaway.

Furthermore, Diamonds & Dogs thinks that the South African route will bleed the furniture business. SA furniture retailers know the price competition game and are willing to protect their turf.

To make it worse, SA is a credit market and there is no prize for guessing the extent to which credit cards have been maxed out.

Lifestyle is a low end furniture producer and exports may not bring the necessary revenues given the volumes required on low end goods.

High end exports (the Adam Bede type) would probably have allowed for niche market creation and hence command higher margins.

The Zim market is obviously saturated because a bed or sofa doesn’t have a repeat sale unless after 3 to 4 years. Liquidity crunch is biting and even with zero deposits, very few can afford the monthly installment.

The various corporate earnings are showing that disposable incomes are now wafer thin if not negative.

Perhaps its high time Lifestyle and Pelhams were merged to cut on costs and exploit any synergies.
Lifestyle’s Weekly Trading Statistics


Attribute
27-Aug
28-Aug
29-Aug
30-Aug
31-Aug
Lifestyle
Price
1c/1.6c
1c Bid
1.5c
1c/1.6c
1.6c Offer
Volume
-
-
13,000
-
-
Value
-
-
$195.00
-
-



Dog: NicozDiamond (US1.1c, WTD: -45%, YTD: -0.63%, Market Cap $6,224,447)

General insurer,NicozDiamond, released its 1Hy2012 results to June 2012 and witnessed a 45% price decline in the aftermath.

Could the two events be related?

 NicozDiamond is undoubtedly one of the most regarded general insurers on the market. The company that has been under the stewardship of Grace Muradzikwa aka“Sister G” for quite sometime now has substantial brand equity backed by a credit rating on claims settlement.

Grace Muradzikwa, with over 24 years’ experience in the insurance sector has received numerous personal awards as well as on behalf of Nicoz Diamond. The awards were for first black female to list and head a publicly traded company in Zimbabwe, 1996 Insurance Personality of the Year, 2004 Zimbabwe Manager of the Year runner up, 2005 quoted companies Best Insurance Counter and Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce 2005 Businesswoman of The Year.

Muradzikwa is recognised as the first female managing director to win two IoDZ director of the year awards since their inception in 2004.

Diamonds & Dogs knows that you are now wondering if this is still about NicozDiamond or not. That depends on how you answer the following question:-

“Where will NicozDiamond be after the departure of Sister G sometime in the future?”

Back to insurance...general insurance has been suffering from an underperforming engineering and motor sector largely on the back of rate undercutting.

The rate undercutting particularly has been the undoing for the sector and saw IPEC threatening to intervene on the market in 2011. Unfortunately, the rate are only recommended and not enforced so insurers are left at the mercy of brokers who always threaten to take the account to the next insurer for a better price.

To make matters worse, the money and capital markets performance is not helping either.

Equities, which form a huge portion of general insurers’ investment portfolio are in free fall with Industrials down 9% YTD and Minings down 12% while money market rates are coming off on the back of moral suasion while stable banks are also quoting even lower interest rates.

That places, general insurers between a rock and hard place.

1HY2012 Results Summary

NicozDiamond

§ +20% growth in GPW to $14 million for the six months to June 2012 whilst reinsurance ceded increased by 58% to $6 million.

§ NPW grew by 9% to $8 million, the lower growth being the effect of the big jump in reinsurance ceded.

§ NPE fell by 7% to $6.8 million as the unearned premium reserve grew by $1.2 million in the first half compared to $556,587 during the same period in 2011.

§ Claims fell to $3.7 million from $4.5 million and contributed to the decline in combined expenses from $7.2 million to $6.7 million. Profit for the period was up $17% at $654,119.

§ Zimbabwean operations contributed 96% of the underwriting profit whilst FICO (Uganda) contributed the balance.

§ Going forward, NicozDiamond is pursuing the recapitalization of FICO.


NicozDiamond Weekly Trading Statistics

Attribute
27-Aug
28-Aug
29-Aug
30-Aug
31-Aug
NicozDiamond
Price
1.3c/2c
2c
1.3c/2c
1.2c/2c
1.1c
Volume
-
3,829
-
-
55,573
Value
-
$76.58
-
-
$ 611.30


ZSE Round Up
Market Performance:

§ Total market capitalisation rose 0.54% to close the week at $3.73bn. YTD -6.09%.

§ The industrial index closed the week 0.75% higher at 132.27 points. The mining index closed the week unchanged at 89.04 points.

§ Heavyweights Delta, Econet and Innscor recorded overall gains for the week of 4.11%, 0.72% and 1.11% respectively.

§ LifeStyle Holdings, Interfresh and Afdis were the top gainers of the week, up 36.36%, 20.00% and 15.38% respectively.

§ PG Industries, NicozDiamond and African Sun recorded the most significant losses, down 50.00%, 45.00% and 23.47% respectively.

Flows for the week:

§ Volumes traded and turnover totalled 30.4mn shares and $2.8mn respectively.

§ Share volumes averaged 6.1mn shares per day.

§ Average daily value traded was $567k for the week. Trades were dominated by Delta, Econet and Barclays which made up 26%, 19% and 8% of turnover respectively.



Invest Wisely!


Notes

**The author of this report does not hold shares in any of the companies discussed/ mentioned in this report.

** Statistical information was sourced from ZSE, IH Securities, EFE Securities& Bulls n Bears (www.bulls.co.zw)