Bullish Thoughts: Listing the "joint"

Bullish Thoughts thinks something is wrong at ZESA after he spent the weekend with electricity even amidst thunder and lightning, thinks due diligence is already underway for the “joint” businessand looks at this n that.

  

Let’s list the damn joint…

Bullish Thoughts spend the week wondering how it is like for a CA major in Corporate Financial Strategy & Restructuring to spend the night in the joint.

Bullish Thoughts bets you the damn joint is going to be listed on the Alternative Exchange in the not so distant future.

After all, the joint has some seriously vibrant agro division and a vibrant band which would make Tuku and Dudu green with envy.

Bullish Thoughts supposes the ZPS would probably list at two prisoners per share!

Gotta say though, it’s not really a good time to be sitting on any board of directors right now!

Governance or licence discount?..

Econet Wireless was deemed a blue chip counter (was because Bullish Thoughts is not sure anymore) and at one point eclipsed Delta Beverages as the most valuable counter on the Zimbabwe bourse.

Right now it has lost more than $169m since January 2011. The loss of value is unbelievable and the stock hasn’t shown sign of reversing the trend.

The buzz word in the market circles has been the governance discount but Bullish Thoughts says with a YTD market loss of $169m, the current management shouldn’t even be setting their feet anywhere near Econet Park.

In Bullish Thoughts’ view Econet is suffering from the liquidity crunch faced by various market players.

You want to raise money quickly? Sell Econet. If anyone is observant enough, one would notice that almost daily, Econet accounts for +50% of market value of trades.

The counter is the easiest to sell in a falling market and that has obviously created a serious scrip overhang.

Bullish Thoughts wishes, he had a lot of cash right now! At a P/E of 4.2x, the company is trading at a huge discount of 80% to the consensus intrinsic value of $6.70. A screaming buy by any standards.

Perhaps the investors are worried that the licence renewal fee would be ridiculous, Indian style $bn plus! Right now POTRAZ has $100m listed as the MNO licence fee.

The most likely scenario however is that this is not being factored in Econet Wireless valuations.

However, the big question is if the government is going to demand all this bucket load of cash at once or it will give a 10 year amortisation scheme?

Bullish Thoughts doesn’t have an answer but bets if the fee is anything other than $100m, the stock is going to tank!

Eco service…

In his conservations with many of the subscribers to the Inspired Network, one common aspect that almost always comes up is the creaming off aspect.

Econet’s products are always initially ridiculously priced and the customer service equally horrible. The 111 line is never answered (if it still exists) and there are scary queues at First Street &Joina City service centres.

There is serious need for improvement of the customer service culture at Econet.

The market would surely welcome some EcoService launch.

If you have 7 in 10 subscribers on your network, service delivery is critical for future success.

Motivational … Are You Guarding A Concrete Slab?

There was an army barracks that had on its duty roster 4 soldiers to guard at all times a concrete slab in front of the barracks. The soldiers changed shifts guarding the slabs for many years. Different commanders came and went and the tradition continued.

After many years, a new commander was assigned to the barracks. Amongst the things he did was asking why things were done the way they were. When he asked why soldiers were guarding the slab, he was told, "We've always done it this way. It's our tradition. Our former commanders instructed us to do that."

The commander was adamant on finding out why. He went to the archives to look for answers and he came across a document that had the explanation. The document was very old.  It had instructions written by one of the retired commanders who had even passed away.

The new commander learnt that over 80 years ago, the barracks wanted to build a platform where events could be performed. When the concrete slab was laid, wild animals walked over it at night before the slab would dry. The soldiers would fix it the next morning but when evening came the same thing would happen. So the commander ordered that 4 soldiers should guard the concrete slab for 3 weeks to allow it to dry. The following week the commander was transferred to another post and a new commander was brought in. The new commander found the routine and enforced it and every commander that came did the same. Eighty years later the barracks continued guarding a concrete slab.

What beliefs, attitudes, traditions have you carried on that were relevant to certain people or a certain time and they are still being carried out by you? Is your opinion about yourself, people of a different race, the opposite sex, certain business opportunities, new products etc obsolete? Question the status quo.

Invest Wisely!

**The author of this report does not hold shares in any of the companies discussed/ mentioned in this report.

Bulls n Bears

Email: bulls@bulls.co.zw

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Bullish Thoughts: Genesis 19 vs 1-29

Bullish Thoughts knows that Faith Capital (Pvt) Ltd’s policy for any publications under the Bulls n Bears banner is that there should not be political commentary under whatever circumstances.

Having been given the green light to air his thoughts on behaviours worse than those of pigs and dogs, Bullish Thoughts will risk his hide and exploit that loophole to make some semi-political commentary. In fact it’s not even political but just involves some political characters.

There is nothing really financial or anything to be Bullish about in the column unless perhaps you are looking at political finance.

Bullish Thoughts hopes this will be his last article on the issue of same sex relationships and will do a Gaddafi if someone legalizes it and foists it on him…die fighting for his a***’s “purity”!

More gay rights @#$!

Bullish Thoughts has been accused of criminal abuse of the Queen’s language, or rather an injustice to. Well, Bullish Thoughts was so angry, yes angry, with some beings in this country who are supposed to be leading the behavioural change crusade to curb social decay that he ended up tripping on his keyboard leading to a series of typos in the last issue of the column.

Bullish Thoughts has two issues with the country’s pseudo premier.

That it has been shown time and again that he is of no policy consequence in this country as of now is beyond doubt.But that doesn’t mean he has to be reckless with what’s left of his political career and worse still, moral fibre.

Does the man have a “real advisor” who advises him on what and what not to say, what to think and what not to think, what to dream and what not to dream?

In the USA, Obama flip flopped and is sure to get as many gay votes as possible (if they care anyway) in 2012. In Africa (excluding the morally decadent SA), homosexuality is an abomination and taboo. Parroting Obama’s or Cameron’s thoughts on it is suicide. Bullish Thoughts even wonders how one can even come to be asked about it on TV! Worse still, go on to endorse such crap in the name of human rights. Homosexuality is not a human right. Sodom and Gomorrah clarified that for everyone. Unless the Methodist Church intends to endorse that.

Man, how can one even think of corrupting our constitution, the soul of the nation by legalizing that! Such thoughts should not even cross your mind whether you sleep in a chicken run, pig sty or your great grandmother’s granary. Eeeik!

Somebody get this man a wife!Perhaps he will think straight.

Who is your confidante…or who do you confide in?

Somebody tell the PM what confiding is. The premier told a gathering in Binga that H.E.confided in him that he wants to quit but is afraid of hardliners. The same H.E. also confided in the PM that he is afraid that if he steps down the patriotic party will disintegrating.

Bullish Thoughts Googled up confide and came up with the definition :            “…to impart secrets trustfully…to tell in assurance of secrecy…”

Unless PM is saying that H.E. was telling him as a “useful messenger” for testing the patriotic party temperatures ahead of the Bulawayo Indaba…but Bullish Thoughts will bet that even if the H.E. did “confide” in the PM, he never thought that this private conversation told in assumed assurance of secrecy would be further “confided” to Binga Villagers.

Bullish Thoughts hopes someone will share with the premier the 21 Irrefutable Laws of Leadership.

Below are excerpts from the 6^th law:

The Law of Solid Ground

Trust is the foundation of leadership. It is the most important thing. Leaders cannot repeatedly break trust with people and continue to influence them.

How does a leader build trust? By consistently exemplifying competence, connection and character. People will forgive occasional mistakes on ability. And they will give you time to connect. But they won’t trust someone who has slips in character.

Character Communicates – a person’s character quickly communicates many things to others. Here are the most important ones:

·         Character Communicates Consistency – leaders without inner strength can’t be counted on day after day because their ability to perform changes constantly.

·         Character Communicates Potential – weak character is limiting. Who do you think has the greater potential to achieve great dreams: someone who is honest, disciplined, and hardworking or someone who is deceitful, impulsive and lazy?

·         Character Communicates Respect – When you don’t have character within, you can’t earn respect without. How do leaders earn respect? By making sound decisions, by admitting their mistakes, and by putting what’s best for their followers and the organization ahead of their personal agendas.

No leader can break trust with his people and expect to keep influencing them. Trust is the foundation of leadership. Violate the Law of Solid Ground, and you diminish your influence as a leader.

If this is a reflection what the PM’s character (outside political games), prepare for a Wikileakgate 2 starting at the highest level of government in the coming years.

Secrets are meant to be kept secret!

Value has value if only valued…

Below is a speech by Bryan Dyson (former CEO, Coca Cola) 

"Imagine life as a game in which you are juggling some five balls in the air. You name them - Work, Family, Health, Friends and Spirit and you're keeping all of these in the Air. 

You will soon understand that work is a rubber ball. If you drop it, it will bounce back. 

But the other four Balls - Family, Health, Friends and Spirit - are made of glass. If you drop one of these; they will be irrevocably scuffed, marked, nicked, damaged or even shattered. They will never be the same. You must understand that and strive for it." 

Work efficiently during office hours and leave on time. Give the required time to your family, friends & have proper rest.

Bullish Thoughts encourages you to live wisely!